Emergency savage alert guys this unknown metric is actually the factor x for this bull cycle and will send shivers down your spine once you follow me down this dark, deep, dangerous hole in this chart pattern.
Nobody is talking about, could leave many inexperienced investors clutching their jingle bells and rushing back to their mommies. But if you watch this channel, you know that we do not panic sell because we make our own milk.
I am your host charlie, cheek slapper and boy. Do we have a big webisode for you today? We have some very interesting technical analysis that we're going to be jumping into, but more importantly, we have some extremely extremely, very eye-opening, very critical on-chain data for bitcoin that will surely blow you straight to the moon.
So we're, not gonna waste any more time, if you guys are new to the channel, make sure to hit that like subscribe and turn on those post notifications. If you want access to these time sensitive insane, ta updates guys every single day for the past week and a half rta has been absolutely spot on, but that's enough diddling.
For one day, let's, jump in so guys shout out to glassnode here here on bitcoinuncharted.substack.com. This is a extremely interesting read. Now we're, not going to go through all of this, but i have a few key points that i think are 100 worth mentioning so uh since december 2020, something we've, been saying - and this is just backed by on-chain data - Retail seems to be the main driver of the rally, whereas institutions are buying up the dips, creating the new support levels on the way up, uh.
So again, retail is very important in this rally, but we have to factor in that huge huge new factor of 2020 and 2021. Only okay, this didn't exist before 2020. That institutions are buying up these dips square and micro strategy are two giant examples of this: okay, papa, michael saylor, consistently updating on twitter when microstrategy makes a big bitcoin buy and something we mentioned a few days ago as well, is the sopr.
Currently, the short-term consolidation is very healthy and increases the chance for a higher global top, which is something we've, been saying for weeks and weeks on end. We don't want to get we don't want to explode too fast, because that will just shorten the rally most likely.
We want to kind of inch our way up and take our time up here. So, the past week, tactical indicators such as sopr and funding rates had the chance to cool off and reset making room for the next leg up now again, this is backed by ta, and this is backed by on-chain data.
So this is just very important. We don't want to shoot straight up to 100 000 because, in my opinion, uh the bull market will come crashing to a halt. If we did that, we want it to be more gradual. We don't want to get too exuberant and too explosive too quickly.
Okay, you never want to explode too fast. It's, not fun for anyone. Believe me now. This is where it gets very, very interesting here, diving further into the structural angle, the liquid supply chain chart here of glass, node, saying here, one of glassnode's.
Most powerful metrics shows us that supply on the bitcoin blockchain is further drying up, despite rising prices and guys. This is what i said in the intro about factor x. Okay, this is a topic that i've, been talking about for years.
At this point on this channel and a lot of people bring it up as well, but it's very interesting, because the thing is, nobody knows the exact numbers here and what i'm talking about is how much bitcoin are there? Actually, in circulation right, we know there's, going to be a total of 21 million bitcoin when they're all mined in, like 100 years from now, but and there's currently like roughly about 18 million.
But the real question is, you know there's, estimates of five to six million, bitcoin being permanently lost, and again those are just estimates, so the real giant factor x here is that, yes, sure we have a max supply of 21 million bitcoin.
We have a current circulating supply of you know: 18 million roughly bitcoin, but how much bitcoin is there really in circulation? That is a massive factor x here that needs to be considered, because it has huge ramifications for how valuable bitcoin can be if there's, a a massive shortage in bitcoin and there's, just not nearly as much as we thought There was then guys it's, simple supply and demand.
If we have the demand and the supply turns out to be much less than we thought it was. What do you think demand is going to do? Do you think demand will decrease good golly? No demand will absolutely explode, like my belly on a saturday night after eating a bunch of jelly beans and guys.
This is huge. Long-Term holders seem to be less worried about this pullback than the previous one just last month from 42k down to 29k, and they are not reducing their position, nor taking profits as aggressively as last month, and you can see that here again.
This is why on-chain data is interesting and guys you can see the position sizes are very different. This was back in january, this giant massive red uh spikage, and this is now so again. I don't. Think anyone's as concerned now we had a dip back in january.
A lot of new people went through that and again, if you only joined crypto a few months ago january was a pretty big wake-up call. We had a nice dip now again, if you've only been in here for a few months.
This is like the next biggest dip, this dip, that is in february and now has bled over into march. This is very good, so people that are new to space are getting experience early on what it's like to go through a dip, but already we're, seeing that people are not reducing their position.
Sizes aka people are not really panic selling as much already because they understand that uh. This cycle is far from over in everyone's, opinion anybody that that studies, ta or just cyclical data unchained data everything previous cycles.
This cycle is not over. In fact, a lot of estimates - and we're gonna get into this here point depending on how this cycle plays out whether it's 2013 or 2017. This specific post actually puts us between 50 to like 30 percent through the cycle, so uh either about one third through the cycle or about one half through the cycle.
Either way sounds good to me, because that spells one thing more gainage to come and guys. This is what i just mentioned here. According to this post here on a structural level, that seems to be falling 2013 closer than 2017 and that's.
What i've, been saying actually for months. You can go back and watch my videos back in even november and december, and i was i was just saying, i think maybe a double top type pattern where we explode uh, pull back and trade sideways for like multiple months and then have another massive explosion.
Is more likely what i thought as opposed to 2017, where we kind of just went straight up explosively and then straight down crashing? They also take into account the s2f model being a few weeks ahead of schedule, meaning bitcoin's, absolutely pumping and rumping to the upside, but um yeah this.
This kind of ends the article here just going to skip through a little bit. We're currently halfway through the current cycle compared to 2017 and about a third of the way when compared to 2013, as i mentioned just about a minute ago.
So if we assume the potential of two tops as discussed above and like i've been saying for a while on this channel, i personally think the two top theory is. It makes more sense to me just because of how exuberant and fundamental how much fundamental news we have, but again, these cycles are never going to be exact.
Anyway, we're, never going to get an exact repeat of any cycle there's, always going to be differences. So this cycle, no matter what happens is not going to be the exact same as 2013 and it's. Not going to be the exact same as 2017, either yeah.
So if we start here on the weekly chart for bitcoin guys overnight, we had a nice little rumpage above 50k, and you can see we pumped from our one fib level in this one-hour chart all the way up to our next level.
We got a little above it, but you can see we got rejected after one single hour uh and that's right about the 51-7 uh so overnight. I think we went all the way up to about yeah. We actually went above 52 000 overnight, but you can see we're, actually testing for support now on this four hour chart guys and as we showed you in that clip earlier and as you saw from yesterday, what we were saying is that you Know this is a very interesting falling wedge and it'll, be very interesting to see if we break out all the way up falling wedge, which could be considered a bullish pattern.
Uh. It looks as though we already started breaking out of this pattern, but you see us get rejected, so the thing i'm really really looking for over the next. Maybe two to three days is to see if we truly get that relief rally that could lead us all the way up to about 56 000 us dollars, uh and guys.
This is a really important part of the video in terms of price price targets, because we could actually hit that 56 000 level and end up over the next week, even going lower than we have so far, so that's, the main takeaway i Want to have of this is that we could potentially still be in a relief rally and get rejected to the big fif uh fib level of about 56 000 per bitcoin um, but it'll, be very interesting to see there if we actually get A confirmation break above that or if that is the end of the relief rally and we could actually plummet lower.
So this is the chart that i mentioned at the beginning is a chart. No one's looking at because and the charter will send people running back to their mommies because guys imagine if this happened imagine over the next few days.
We do continue rallying here and we get back to around around 56 000 us dollars. So many people, especially new people in the space, are gonna, say: oh gosh, we're about to hit 60 65 70 k. I am going all in here.
We go and uh that's. Why we need to wait for confirmations before we before we do that right before we get too excited, because it's very possible that we could see a rally up to this fifty six thousand dollar level.
This key fib level, though uh two here on this fib extension and then get rejected down, so i'm gon. Na only reason i'm saying. That is because i want people to be careful, because this thing we're, not out of the woods yet, even if we break all the way to 56k that doesn't mean we're, going straight to no all-time Highs there are already people saying we're, going straight to new all-time highs.
Now, just because we broke above 50, 000 again and guys that's, why ta is so valuable because if you have experience with ta, you wouldn't be saying things like that: the only people that are saying, oh, we broke above 50K now we're, going straight up to all-time highs or people that don't, understand, ta or just don't use ta and the biggest battle going on still guys is this 21 day moving average? Now, if we get a daily close here uh today, and then we remain above it tomorrow, then then we can start flipping a little bullish here.
If we can actually flip this 21 day and cement this, then we can start getting bullish guys, but we can't get ahead of ourselves. I think at the the minimum. We need to wait at least another 48 hours before we get too confident.
Even if we break up to like 56 within the next 24 hours, that would be great. But we need to be careful because there are massive swings in crypto and we want to make sure we actually regain some of these moving averages and some of these momentum indicators before we get too excited about everything and as well ethereum, actually looking really good.
I'm, really happy about this, reclaiming the 50-day. We went a little below it last night, but ultimately pretty good and again. Ada is another thing i'm kind of concerned about because we seem to be breaking the parabolic structure.
We'll, know again within the next 24 to 48 hours, because right now we're trading, a little outside of it, but this isn't anything drastic. Yet if we get a few more days where we just continue going down here, then it could start getting start getting nasty for ada, especially if we touch this 20 21 day moving average down here.
If we come back down to that, roughly a dollar level for ada be careful guys. We need to watch out for that um as well. The entire cryptocurrency market cap is trying to regain its 21 day moving average after this dippage.
So again, very telling we'll, see how it plays out, but um yeah. We're in the middle of a very, very, very important move. Right now make sure you hit that like subscribe, turn this post notifications, if you're interested in trading, make sure to take advantage of our buy bit and femax deposit bonuses below never trade more than you're willing to lose.
I personally don't trade any more than 5, maybe 10 maximum of my portfolio, but i usually stick to around five percent max uh you don't want to trade with everything that's, absolutely silly. You always want to be careful and without any further goo, that's it for me bye-bye.